What to make of polls that are polls apart

Why are so many polls showing results that are polls apart? The Real Clear Politics web site at the link below shows Obama leading by 3 to 13 points.

The first thing to consider is the sampling base. Are they made up of “likely voters” or “registered voters?” How many Republicans are in the sample? How many Democrats?

As we have reported in the past, some polls sample more Democrats than Republicans. These are “push polls.” The Washington Post, New York Times and Newsweek often use up to 10% or more Democrats in their sampling base insuring that the Democratic candidate comes out on top.

This year there is another reason for over-sampling Democrats. It’s because of the fictitious and fraudulent registrations by groups like ACORN. They register large numbers of non-existent Democrat voters. The polls then sample people based on that percentage, and report that Obama is leading.

The reason stated in the previous paragraph is alarming to the Obama campaign because it means that there are a lot of real Democrats that plan on voting for McCain.

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There are other reasons why this election is more difficult to predict than previous presidential elections.

Listed below are a few things to consider this year when attempting to predict the election outcome:

1. How many black Republicans will vote for Obama because of race?

2. How many voters, regardless of their party affiliation, simply will not vote for a black man to be their president. Much has been said about the Bradley effect, which is the theory that white people tell pollsters they'll vote for a black candidate like Barack Obama but, once in the voting booth, will actually vote for a white person like John McCain.

3. How many Republican males will not vote the McCain - Palin ticket because they are Chauvinistic and won’t vote for a female vice president?

4. How many Catholic Democrats will follow their Bishop’s order and not vote for the pro-abortion Obama?

5. How many Jewish Democrats will not vote for Obama because of his (mostly hidden) pro-Arab leanings?

6. And don’t forget the Joe the Plumber effect. He alerted untold numbers of Americans to Obama’s Socialist agenda.

7. How many young people will actually vote. It is “hip” to wear Obama shirts on campus, but in the past only a small percent of them will vote.

8. And then there is the usual effort by an ever-increasing number of Democrat activists who vote dead people and other acts of voter fraud. This year the pro-Democrat group ACORN is working even harder to perpetrate voter fraud.

Link to polls here.