With non-stop favorable coverage by the media, Obama should be twenty or more points ahead.
The report at the link below says:
Zogby’s latest poll, released yesterday in conjunction with C-Span and Reuters, shows Obama and John McCain in a statistical dead heat, with the Illinois Democrat up 48-45 percent.
Zogby said the race mirrors the 1980 election, when voters didn’t embrace Ronald Reagan over then-President Jimmy Carter until just days before the election.
Polls showed Walter Mondale ahead of Ronald Reagan in 1984 and Mike Dukakis ahead of George H.W. Bush in 1988. In 2000 polls showed Al Gore ahead and in 2004 polls showed John Kerry ahead.
This can only suggest that “push polling” was used.
There are many forms of “push polling.” The most common is to include more of one major political party than the other in the sampling base. Also, questions to respondents can be worded so that the desired result is obtained.
This year “push polling” is even easier by simply including a larger percent of blacks in the sample to show an Obama lead.
A discussion about polling should also include the exit polling on election day in 2004.
The early exit polls from precincts in Virginia showed an overwhelming lead for John Kerry, which had the Kerry Edwards campaign singing and dancing until the real vote counts came in.
It was an obvious ploy to try to influence voters in western states by showing a Kerry win in the making.
A picture of my cave
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