Yesterday, Gallup delivered its first 2010 "likely voter" poll and the results floored the political community.
In the generic ballot question, which asks which party a voter would favor in a generic House contest, Gallup gave the GOP a 46% to 42% edge.
But then Gallup applied two versions of its "likely voter" turnout model. In its "high turnout model," Republicans led Democrats by 53% to 40%.
The real stunner comes in the Gallup "low turnout model" in which the GOP edge was a stunning 56% to 38%.
That kind of margin in favor of Republicans has never been seen in Gallup surveys.
Michael Barone, co-author of the Almanac of American Politics, says either of the Gallup turnout models would produce "a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928."
Mr. Barone says the historical parallel might no longer be 1994, when the GOP gained 54 House seats, but instead 1894, when Republicans gained more than 100 House seats in the middle of the economic downturn that engulfed Democratic President Grover Cleveland.
A picture of my cave
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