Nov 16, 2008

The Washington Post cites 5 November election myths

Myth #1. The Republican Party suffered a death blow.

Even though the Republicans lost the White House, six Senate seats and 24 House seats, there are two good reasons to believe that Republicans will be back on their feet sooner than many people expect.

First, it will take new faces to rejuvenate the party and hitting rock bottom was the only way to allow new faces and ideas to emerge.

Second, historical electoral patterns suggest that Republicans could pick up a gob of Senate and House seats in 2010 -- the first midterm election under President Obama.

Myth #2. A wave of black voters and young people was the key to Obama's victory.

Exit polling suggests that there was no statistically significant increase in voting among either group.

Black voters made up 11 percent of the electorate in 2004 and 13 percent in 2008, while young voters comprised 17 percent of all voters in 2004 and 18 percent four years later.

Myth #3. Now that they control the White House and Congress, Democrats will usher in a new progressive era.

This is not likely to happen because there is a heavy influx of moderate to conservative members in the incoming freshman Democrats, particularly in the House.

As the Post article points out, the first rule of politics is survival. If these new arrivals to Washington want to stick around, they are likely to build centrist voting records between now and 2010 preventing a liberal dream agenda from moving through Congress.

Myth #4. A Republican candidate could have won the presidency this year.

Not likely. The claim by the Obama campaign that voting for McCain would be four more years of a Bush presidency resonated with many voters. With Bush approval ratings as low as the ratings of the Carter presidency, it wouldn’t have mattered which Republican was running against Obama.

Even though we knew very little about Barack Obama (and still don’t), the media made Obama into a “rock star.” There are no “rock stars” in the Republican Party.

Myth #5. McCain made a huge mistake in picking Sarah Palin.

Not so. Last summer McCain had won the Republican nomination, but the GOP base held little excitement for his campaign.

Then came Sarah Palin and suddenly the Republican base became energized. Sixty percent of voters who told exit pollsters that McCain's choice of Palin was a “factor” in their final decision, the Arizona senator won 56 percent to 43 percent.

The Post article says, It's hard to imagine conservatives rallying to McCain -- even to the relatively limited extent that they did -- without Palin on the ticket. Without Sarah Palin, McCain's loss could have been far worse.

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